The Future is Electric!
There’s no secret and not much debate: in order to reach the US climate goal of being carbon neutral by 2050, our buildings will need to consume electricity rather than burning fossil fuels. The reason is pretty simple: gas equipment always emits carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs). Electric equipment doesn’t have to. Since the average life of a gas furnace is 15 - 30 years, in order to be carbon neutral by 2050 new home construction will need to move to electric equipment rather than fossil fuel equipment quickly.
We’re nowhere near 100% electric in new home construction today. In fact, 74% of the 201,000 homes HERS rated in Ekotrope in 2020 use fossil fuel as their heating source, predominantly natural gas. For water heating, it’s about 66%.
We need to start thinking about and preparing for this transition now: it will take time to go from 26% to 100% electric heating. To meet the 2050 goal, we need to move a lot faster than we are now.
Why do most homes use Natural Gas?
The primary reason is pretty basic: gas homes cost less to build and in most places have lower energy costs too. And there are few incentives encouraging builders to go electric. Virtually all energy codes and utility or government programs are agnostic as to what energy source is used.
Until now, almost all efforts to reduce emissions in buildings are focused on improving efficiency. Utilities provide rebates for more insulation, air sealing and higher efficiency equipment, regardless of if that equipment emits GHGs. It actually costs less to comply with government programs like ENERGY STAR and DOE Zero Energy Ready using gas equipment. These efficiency improvements have been significant and meaningful. A 96 AFUE gas furnace is pretty standard these days in a cold climate, and is vastly more carbon-friendly than the oil boilers that many old homes still have operating in their basements. Still - it will be virtually impossible to be carbon neutral when many homes are burning carbon fuels on-site.
What are your thoughts on this issue? We’d love to hear them! Please feel free to comment down below and share your opinions. Alternatively, you can reach out to us at info@ekotrope.com and we’d be happy to chat more on this topic and answer any questions you may have.
